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Operationalization of MDG in Bangladesh
Country Strategy to Achieve
MGDs in Bangladesh Need for Strategic Rethinking The present strategy addresses three key tasks facing the nation:
The success of the strategy of poverty reduction and attainment of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) would depend on the extent to which the above three tasks are addressed in the coming decade. That Bangladesh, once dubbed as “the test case of development”, could achieve a wide range of social and economic successes seemed remarkable to many observers of development. The present strategy paper draws attention to the often forgotten lesson from the country’s recent economic history underscoring the point that development is possible even in the most trying of circumstances. Although the gains are modest in relation to the magnitude of the overall problem, they defy the gloomy predictions and pessimistic apprehensions that dominated the global discourse about the country’s long-term prospects till recently. The record of achievements includes acceleration in per capita income growth, reduction in population growth, decrease in child mortality, improvements in child nutrition, expansion of primary and secondary education, reduction of gender inequality in education, overcoming the shadow of famine with substantial reduction in chronic food shortage and insecurity, enhanced capacity for disaster management, and sustained trends of decline in income-poverty. However, most of the above-mentioned successes run the risk of slippage. Reaching the above targets would not be easy. The goal of reducing the income-poverty level by half by 2015, for instance, will require significant additional efforts. For this, Bangladesh needs accelerate the pace of poverty reduction from 1.5 per cent per year observed in the 1990s to 3.3 per cent for the period 2000-15. The calculations show that if the past trends of income inequality persist in the next decade, Bangladesh will have to sustain a GDP growth rate of about 7 per cent per year over the next 15 years for reaching the income poverty reduction target. For other indicators, the task appears less daunting. The projected reduction rate for child mortality and child malnutrition is slightly higher than the average progress recorded in the nineties. With renewed emphasis on population control, primary health care, National Nutrition Program (NNP), investments in girl’s education and rising social awareness about public health, targets in child mortality and malnutrition are within the feasible range of attainment. The target for extreme poverty reduction is statistically less demanding but more socially challenging given the need for re-orientating the allocation of resources towards the most needy poor. Process of policy ownership, as has been adopted in Bangladesh, aims at providing a well-prioritized national strategy for economic growth, poverty reduction, and social development. Social development captures inter-related issues of human development, gender equality, social deprivations and environmental sustainability. For this, the process has combined policymaking and broad-based consultations with different stakeholders. Moreover, the strategy has been worked out based on the rich experience of existing poverty research and participatory poverty assessments, impact and outcomes of past strategies and policies, and assessment of development and reform issues. The planning and policy-making agencies of the Government, including the Planning Commission and the relevant Ministries, have been involved in the process. Along with using structured proforma, detailed interaction with Government functionaries was used to get their perception on cross-cutting and sectoral needs and issues, factors behind past successes and failures, and views and suggestions on how the situation can be improved. An Inter-Ministerial Task Force was formed to ensure close interaction and coordination. For operational purposes, the strategy paper will form the core of the Three-Year Rolling Plan (TYRP) providing the basis for the annual budget which will help maintain consistency between the development strategy and the Plan, on the one hand, and between the Plan and the Annual Development Program (ADP) on the other. The Three-Year Rolling Plan would be formulated within the framework of a long-term Perspective Plan. In addition, while formulating the strategies, past achievements and failures in specific areas of both income poverty and human poverty were considered in combination with future imperatives like achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the targets set in the Partnership Agreement on Poverty Reduction (PAPR) with the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Additional inputs for preparing the strategy paper were gathered through commissioning a number of studies in key poverty related areas such as economic, social, and infrastructure development; public expenditure analysis; poverty diagnostics; and governance issues. The Vision With the Constitutional obligation of developing and sustaining a society in which the basic needs of all people are met and every person can prosper in freedom and cherish the ideals and values of a free society, the vision of Bangladesh’s poverty reduction strategy is to substantially reduce poverty within the next generation. For this, poverty reduction (with special focus on the removal of hunger and chronic poverty) and social development (with particular emphasis on gender equality) have been made the overarching independent strategic goals. The vision proposed here adopts a comprehensive approach premised on a rights-based framework, which highlights the need for progressive realization of rights in the shortest possible time. It also takes into consideration Bangladesh’s previous official commitment to achieve the MDGs as well as social targets set in the PAPR with the ADB. Through adopting a comprehensive approach and by taking into account the country’s past international commitments and evolving national realities, the Strategy visualizes that, by the year 2015, Bangladesh would achieve the following goals/targets:
Feasibility of Target Attainment The poverty targets and social development goals are presented in Table 4. Given the pattern of economic growth, which is accompanied by rising inequality, the growth elasticity of poverty reduction for rural areas is estimated at -0.73, while the figure for urban areas is –0.64. Using these elasticities, the results show that the attainment of the Millennium goal of reducing the income-poverty level by half by 2015 will require significant additional efforts. The rural head-count index will be halved by the year 2015 only if the per capita rural consumption expenditure grows at a rate of at least 4 per cent per year. The calculations show that if the goal of reducing the incidence of national poverty prevailing the year 2000 by half is to be achieved by 2015 then Bangladesh needs to sustain a GDP growth rate of about 7 percent per year over the next 15 years. It may be noted that the MDGs have been set within a time-frame of 25-year period with 1990 as the benchmark. This implies that Bangladesh can adopt a more feasible target setting in the light of MDGs by using 1990 as the benchmark year. However, the Government has made a conscious choice in favor of an accelerated development strategy for attaining poverty and social development goals in the shortest possible time. Major goal posts worked out in Table 4 by taking the 2000 figures as the benchmark estimates are premised on this vision. The question is: are these targets realistic? A comparison of the projected targets with the actual pace of progress achieved during the nineties shows that for some indicators, while being higher than the historical trends, these are not far off the mark. Thus, the projected reduction rate for child mortality and child malnutrition is only slightly higher than the average progress recorded in the nineties. Given the renewed emphasis on population control, primary health care, and National Nutrition Program (NNP) and the possible added synergies expected from the incremental social benefits from greater investments in girl’s education and in general rising social awareness about public health, these targets in the area of child mortality and malnutrition are within the feasible range of attainment. The only possible exception is the target of lowering the overall incidence of income-poverty by half, which requires that Bangladesh accelerates the pace of reduction from 1.5 per cent per year observed for the 1990s to 3.3 per cent for the period 2000-15. Again, this is not a tall order given the past record of accelerating progress in reducing poverty in the nineties compared with the eighties. The target for extreme poverty reduction is statistically less daunting, but may be more socially challenging given the need for re-orienting the allocation of resources towards the most needy poor. The required GDP growth reflects the income and population growth during the period in order to sustain the consumption expenditure to achieve the target. It may, however, be noted that the target setting done in Table 4 reflects the goal of reduction of income poverty by half from the benchmark of 2000 rather than from 1990 (which would have been, strictly speaking, more in line with the accepted procedure of setting MDGs). By taking the 1990 benchmark Bangladesh could afford to attain the MDGs at a lower growth rate of about 6 per cent. The reason for this substantive deviation relates ultimately to the issue of social choice (or ‘social will’) as to whether or not a society wants to tread the challenging path of achieving the targets within the shortest possible time by mobilizing all its public, private, NGO, community and individual resources and commitments. If at the end Bangladesh fails to achieve the proposed targets, but can still come closer to attaining them by being a distant second or third, it would still be a higher degree attainment compared to the projected levels based on the more conservative 1990 benchmark. The major thrust of the consultations on this score was cautious, but inspiring, inviting the Government to take on the challenge to depart from the ‘business as usual’ path and build the vision on the spirit of the social successes of the nineties. Table 4 Major Goal Posts in Poverty and Social Indicators under an Accelerated Social Development Strategy with 2000 as the Benchmark Year for Target Setting
As regards other indicators, the likelihood of target attainment is higher given the encouraging performance of the nineties in reducing child mortality and child malnutrition as well as success in removing gender inequality at primary and secondary schooling. The available evidence also suggests that the MDG target of halving malnutrition rates by 2015 is not likely to be met through economic growth alone. More effective public actions than in the past will be necessary in attaining the social goals. This is especially true of the goal of halving the present level child malnutrition. This would also require the exploitation of important synergies between income and non-income indicators. Many of the social indicators included under the MDGs are influenced by economic growth through the channels of income-poverty reduction and public expenditures on social sectors. As the level of income-poverty gets reduced and private spending on social sectors increases, progress in attaining social development goals will be further stimulated. Better governance of social expenditures along with higher allocations through government and non-government channels, as emphasized under the strategy, would provide additional momentum to the process of social development. Summary Points Attainment of the target of poverty reduction by half will require significant additional efforts given the past growth performance. If the goal of reducing the incidence of national poverty by half is to be achieved by 2015, Bangladesh needs to sustain a GDP growth rate of about 7 per cent per year over the next 15 years. As regards other indicators, the likelihood of target attainment is higher given the encouraging performance of the nineties in reducing child mortality and child malnutrition as well as success in removing gender inequality at primary and secondary schooling. However, these targets will not be met through economic growth alone. Pro-active public actions will play a significant role in attaining the national targets set in the light of MDGs and national priorities.
Source: A
National Strategy for Economic Growth, Poverty Reduction and Social
Development
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Bangladesh has one of the most vulnerable economies,
characterized by extremely high population density, low resource base, and high
incidence of natural disasters. These have adverse implications for long-term
savings, investment, and growth. Such defining features impart certain
uniqueness to the formulation of the poverty reduction strategy.
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BangladeshALL
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